Rugby World Cup 2023 Pools – How Will Teams Progress?

With the Rugby World Cup 2023 pools heading into the final round of matches, the RWC 2023 organisers have re-affirmed the permutations of how the teams will potentially reach the quarterfinals in France.

Wales and England are the only two teams who have already qualified for the quarter-finals from their pools at RWC 2023, with six teams still to join them, what do Japan need to do to reach the knockouts from Pool D?

Teams are still also in the fight to secure automatic qualification for the Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia by securing the top three places in their respective pool.

Feature Photo Credit: JRFU

Pool A – Rugby World Cup 2023

Image Credit: Rugby World Cup 2023

Teams: France, New Zealand, Italy, Uruguay, Namibia

The pool’s only team that can not qualify are Namibia, and France is the only team in Pool A to have secured automatic qualification for RWC 2027 (they can not finish outside the top three at this stage).

Quarterfinal RWC 2023 Permutations

• If New Zealand claim a bonus-point win over Uruguay on Thursday 5th October in Lyon, they will have 15 points.
• France will top Pool A if they avoid defeat against Italy in Lyon on Friday 6th October 2023, but even 2 losing bonus points would also be enough for France to top the pool if Italy do not get a try-bonus point in victory.
• France will finish ahead of New Zealand on the head-to-head rule if both teams end up with 15 points in the pool.
• If France, Italy and New Zealand all finish on 15 points, the All Blacks have the better points difference (+133 to France’s +125 and Italy -14). Italy would then qualify in second ahead of France on the head-to-head rule.
• Uruguay still can qualify for the QF but must beat New Zealand with a try-bonus point, and by at least 80 points (so it’s highly unlikely), and will need France to defeat Italy.

RWC 2027 Qualification

Both quarter-final spots and the other two 2027 qualification places are to be decided:

• The top 2 teams depending on the above permutations will qualify (France already confirmed), and;
• If Uruguay beat New Zealand with a try-bonus point, prevent the All Blacks from taking any bonus point, and  Italy get points with their match vs France, Uriguay can claim third on the head-to-head rule with New Zealand to secure qualification for RWC 2027.
• A single pool point for Italy will confirm their qualification for RWC 2027.

Pool B – RWC 2023

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Teams: Ireland, South Africa, Scotland, Tonga, Romania

Tonga and Romania cannot qualify for the quarter-finals at RWC 2023 and can not get automatic qualification for RWC 2027. However, the fight between Scotland, Ireland, and South Africa will go down to the final matches to stake a QF spot in France, but all three have automatic qualification for 2027.

Quarterfinal RWC 2023 Permutations

• Scotland must beat Ireland on Saturday 7th October in Paris and deny Ireland a bonus point to finish second in Pool B – based on the head-to-head rule, South Africa would top the pool.
• If Ireland gets a bonus point and Scotland does not, Ireland will top the pool on the head-to-head rule from South Africa.
• If Scotland wins against Ireland and both teams get a bonus point, all three teams will be on 15 points and the points difference will determine the top spot in Pool B at RWC 2023.
• Scotland must win by 21 points or more to claim the top spot ahead of South Africa (South Africa +117, Ireland +122 and Scotland +97) and  Ireland would then qualify as runners-up on the head-to-head rule.
• If Scotland wins but by less of a margin, South Africa will finish top on points difference and Scotland second on the head-to-head rule.
• Ireland will guarantee top spot if they secure two points from their match against Scotland in Paris.

RWC 2027 Qualification

• South Africa, Ireland, and Scotland have qualified for the RWC 2027 in Australia.

Pool C – RWC 2023

Image Credit: Rugby World Cup 2023

Teams: Wales, Fiji, Australia, Georgia, Portugal

Quarterfinal RWC 2023 Permutations

• Wales has secured QF qualification for RWC 2023 and needs one point against Georgia in Nantes on Saturday 7th October to guarantee the top spot in Pool C
• Georgia and Portugal cannot qualify for the quarter-finals.
• Fiji needs one pool point against Portugal on Sunday 8th October in Toulouse to confirm second place in Pool C based on the head-to-head rule having already beaten Australia.
• If Fiji gets zero pool points from the match, Australia will qualify for the quarter-finals as runners-up.

RWC 2027 Qualification

• Georgia and Portugal cannot gain automatic qualification for Rugby World Cup 2027.
• Wales, Australia and Fiji have qualified for RWC 2027.

Pool D – RWC 2023

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Teams: England, Argentina, Japan, Chile, Samoa

Quarterfinal RWC 2023 Permutations

• England has a spot in the QF, while Chile can not qualify in France.
• The remaining quarter-final place and the two remaining RWC 2027 automatic qualification spots will be decided between Argentina, Japan and Samoa.
• The match winner of Japan v Argentina on Sunday in Nantes will qualify for the quarter-finals as runner-up, but a draw could be enough to secure second place for Japan or Argentina, depending on whether one or both secure a try-bonus point and Samoa’s result against England. If both sides get a try-scoring bonus points in a draw, Argentina will finish second on points difference (+46 to +18).
• If the match does end in a draw, Japan must be the only team to get a try-scoring bonus point to finish second  in Pool C.
• If Samoa must beat England by 29 points and get a try-bonus point to have the best points difference of the three teams to finish second, Argentina would then finish third on points difference from Japan to qualify for RWC 2027.

RWC 2027 Qualification

• England have qualified for Australia RWC 2027.
• Chile cannot gain automatic qualification for Rugby World Cup 2027.
• Japan, Argentina, and Samoa could all gain qualification based on the above.

Rugby World Cup 2023 News

• Brave Blossoms Topple Samoa In Toulouse – RWC 2023.
• Japan Brave Blossoms Fall To England As Errors Prove Costly.
• Brave Blossoms Win RWC 2023 Opener Against Chile.
• ChildFund Rugby – Principal Social Impact Partner of World Rugby and Rugby World Cup 2023